Monmouth and Ocean school enrollment is dropping fast, data show (2024)

Monmouth and Ocean County public school districts lostnearly6,200 students over the last two years, state data show, worsening a multiyear trend and leaving educators searching for answers.

Data showdecades of declining birth rates likely are reducing incoming class sizes, while some experts saythe increasing cost of living in many Shore towns is playing a role.

“For the last 15 years both nationally and in New Jersey the fertility rate has been declining and is below replacement level," said James W. Hughes,former dean of The Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University and a current professor. "So the number of children being born has been dropping considerably, and it is now reflected in many school systems.”

Observers point to COVID-19 virtual learning for some of the cutbacks, but with all state-mandated COVID restrictions lifted the pandemic is not seen as a major contributor to the decline.

“We did see significant drops from COVID, some of that has come back, but some hasn’t,"Danielle Farrie, a research editor at the New Jersey Education Law Center, said."We can’t tell where the changes are being offset. Some of these enrollment drops are part of longer trends that are not COVID related.”

Monmouth County public school enrollment fell from 94,888 in the 2019-2020 school year to90,930 during the 2021-2022 school year, ending this month.

That’s a loss of nearly 4,000 students, or more than 4%, in two years.

In Ocean County, public school enrollment declined from 68,618 to 66,414— a 2,200-student, or 3% drop, records indicate.

And while the pandemic may not be the root cause of the drops, it appears to have accelerated an existing trend. Analysis of school enrollment data shows the student losses over the last two years in Monmouth and Ocean are roughly equivalent to the losses the counties experienced in the previous four years.

“It’s unlikely we’ll recoup those students,” said Michael Kenny, a spokesman for Toms River Regional Schools, the shore’s largest district with 15,000 students, which saw a 647-student decline since 2019-2020. “But it’s difficult to cite the reasons for the drop considering it’s seemingly both a state and national issue.”

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Other local districts with large reductions include Long Branch, which lost nearly 500 students, or 8.5%; Middletown, with 450 fewer students, or 4.5%; Neptune, which lost 375, almost 10%; Lakewood, with 627 fewer students, or 11%; and Jackson, which had 544 fewer students for a 7% cutback.

“We don’t have all of the answers why enrollment drops,” said Nicole Pormilli, superintendent of the Jackson School District, who said the district cut four teaching positions this year. “But people move out with children, and you see different people move in.”

Statewide, public school enrollment fell from 1,375,829 in 2019-2020 to 1,360,916 in 2021-2022, a loss of almost 15,000 students.

Private and parochial school enrollment is not tracked by state officials and remains protected by most local outlets. The Diocese of Trenton, which oversees 19 Shore schools, declined to provide enrollment figures for each.

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Two nearby Catholic schools, however, closed their doors for good this spring because of enrollment declines.

Mother Seton Academy in Howell announced in December it would shut down after seeing enrollment drop from 300 to 126 students in just the past two years. Mater Dei Preparatory High School in Middletown surprised many with an announcement weeks ago that it was closing after enrollment went from 300 to 220 students in four years.

Asked about the COVID impact, Jackson’s Pormilli said, “I think in the last two years’ it did play a role. We saw some parents keep their children home to home school them, but that is back up.”

Lakewoodcontracted by more than 600 students, or 11% t of its student body, in just two years, but the district is unique.

It is the fastest growing town in New Jersey. Lakewood's population surged by 46%, from 92,843 to 135,158, in the last decade, according to the U.S. Census.The population growth has been spurred predominantly by its expanding Orthodox Jewish community.

While Orthodox families are driving the growth in Lakewood, theirchildren primarily attenda growing network of private schools in the area.As a result, the public school district has continued a multiyear decline.

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Asbury Park, which lost 161 students, or nearly 10% since 2020, began addressing the issue two years ago when it chose to close an elementary school and move seventh and eighth graders to the high school.

Lakewood and Asbury Park school officials could not be reached for comment.

More recently, officials from Atlantic Highlands, Highlands and Sea Bright announced they are considering a consolidation after a study produced by Kean University examined their school districts and strongly recommended it.

“The experts did a phenomenal job of studying the question at hand and giving us the most updated view of the possibilities of regionalization,” Tara Beams, superintendent of the Tri-District that oversees the current Atlantic Highlands andHighlands elementary school districts and Henry Hudson High School district, said earlier this month. “The recommendations in terms of tax savings and efficiencies make a lot of sense, but now we have to do the work of figuring out how to actually apply those recommendations.”

The statewide enrollment declines are in contrast to population growth in New Jersey, which recently exceeded9 million residents for the first time.

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But population growth has slowed considerably in New Jersey in recent years, in part due to decades of declining birth rates. New Jersey's birth rate per 1,000 people was just 10.9 in 2020, the lowest level in at least 30 years.

“Some of it is people having less kids, it is people moving out of New Jersey, it could be a variety of things. It is hard to pinpoint one reason,” said Pormilli. “We are far away from having to layoff or consolidation being needed.”

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Analysis of U.S. Census data shows the number of school-aged children dropped by more than 14% in Monmouth County from 2010 to 2019, the most recent data available.

“Primarily it is a lifestyle choice. Some people prefer not to be a parent, some may feel not confident about the future,” said Hughes of Rutgers, who cited national fertility rate that dropped from 2.1 in 2007 to 1.66 in 2021.

That figure grew in Ocean County, overall, propelled near exclusively by Lakewood's growth. Lakewood now has more than one quarter of all school-aged children in Ocean County.

Richard Bozza, executive director of the New Jersey Association of School Administrators, cited the reduction in younger students and pointed out the expense of having children in some high-priced areas, including many Shore communities.

“When I look at the statewide number it has to be a change in the residential patterns, the cost of homes in Monmouth and Ocean counties have gone up considerably,” he said. “Where does a young family get a starter home? We are hearing that couples are waiting later to have kids, nationwide. That has to do with financial insecurity. The housing market is getting more expensive, people are delaying their plans.”

For teachers, the enrollment drop is a concern, according to Steven Baker, a spokesman for the New Jersey Education Association. But he does not expect major job cuts anytime soon.

“It is certainly a number worth watching, but I’d be very careful about drawing too many conclusions based on a very small data set and based on the really unusual circ*mstances of the last couple of years,” Baker said. “A lot of factors — from the birthrate in NJ to net migration into or out of the state — affect public school enrollment. Certainly, local communities will see even wider swings (in both directions) in school enrollment based on the population growth and age demographics of the individual community.”

Joe Strupp is an award-winning journalist with 30 years’ experiencewho covers education and several local communities for APP.com and the Asbury Park Press. He is also the author of three books, including Killing Journalism on the state of the news media, and an adjunct media professor at Rutgers University and Fairleigh Dickinson University. Reachhim at jstrupp@gannettnj.com and at 732-413-3840. Follow him on Twitter at @joestrupp