Going 3-2 with a Falcons cover by a half point -- which is what I did in Week 5, still a winning week! -- is a great example of making NFL picks against the spread. Sure, the Patriots weren't remotely close to covering against the Saints, but the Texans-Falcons game was one where it was basically a coin flip in terms of who covered. Just an impossibly hard sport to predict.
There's no new Taylor Swift news to report here, although I remain warm while writing picks featuring Ms. Swift so ... on the heels of last week's somewhat skeptical discussion about T-Swift and Kelce's relationship, it's worth noting two things:
One, the Chiefs and Broncos play in Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday night. That means Kelce -- who is technically questionable to go in this Amazon Prime affair -- should be on the field and starting in the game. Which means we might see Taylor at the game as well? Because ...
Two, Swift's Eras Tour documentary movie is dropping on Thursday as well. The premiere of said movie was Wednesday in Hollywood but it'll be percolating pretty heavily throughout the day on Thursday. Does Taylor Swift need the megaphone amplification of an NFL island game to drum up publicity for a documentary of her wildly popular musical tour? Absolutely not. Will she take it? Absolutely!
Anyway, speaking of that game, I've tossed a bonus best bet in here for Thursday night on a total to go along with the usual five pack of picks that I put in my best bets column. You can get all my best bets for the week (few more NFL picks probably, maybe some college, who knows maybe some baseball, why not, 1-0 FOR LIFE) over at SportsLine using promo code PICK and if you want to watch a full breakdown of all my best bets (see above, re: a few more) make sure to watch and/or listen to the Pick Six Podcast on YouTube or whatever you get your podcasts.
To the Week 6 picks!
Broncos at Chiefs under (47)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
Kansas City is a massive favorite here and I lean towards Denver with that many points, but I like the under much better. The Chiefs defense is playing great football and Denver can't stop the run. Given the upcoming schedule for KC -- Denver twice, the Chargers and the Dolphins before the bye and the Eagles right after -- I highly doubt Andy Reid wants to risk injuries or put a ton on tape. In a perfect world, the Broncos show up and get an outrageous dose of Isiah Pacheco with a side of suffocating defense to keep this way under the current total. If the Chiefs get to halftime with a double-digit lead, feel free to double down on the second half under.
Result: Chiefs 19-8
Texans (+1.5) vs. Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
This feels like an overreaction to the Texans dropping a close one on the road against a good Atlanta defense and the Saints bludgeoning the Patriots in Foxborough. Neither team profiles as completely dominant and maybe the Saints defense is better ... but is the Texans offense potentially ahead of New Orleans? C.J. Stroud has been excellent this year and he's definitely the best quarterback in this matchup, at the moment. Like the matchup with Atlanta, this will probably be a close battle but I'll take the home team with a strong defense and a rapidly improving offensive line to find a way and steal this one at home.
Lions (-3) at Buccaneers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
Even though this is most certainly a trappy-style game for a Detroit team on a roll, the Lions are undervalued based on what I've seen from this team. They have handled good teams and smacked down bad teams. The only slip-up was a wild overtime loss to a good Seattle team in Week 2 coming off the win over the Chiefs. Their response since has been impressive and I don't expect Dan Campbell to let his guys slip up on the road against a Tampa squad that will let Jared Goff wing it around if he's properly protected. David Montgomery won't dominant in the run game against this Buccaneers squad, but I doubt the Bucs can get a lot going against a much-improved Lions defense. The Lions in a different uniform with different expectations are probably a bigger favorite here.
Falcons (-2.5) vs. Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS,Paramount+)
I was actually kind of shocked to find out the Falcons have been terrible against the spread this year. The Falcons are 3-2 and even though they were extremely undervalued before the season, they're just 1-3-1 ATS on the season. When you break it down it makes sense: their only ATS win was handling the Panthers in Week 1, they stole a comeback win against Green Bay as a short home fave, they got dominated by the Lions and Jaguars and then they improbably pushed against the Texans. The Commanders are slinging it around a bit this year, but I'm not sure that's the best solution against a Falcons defense with Jessie Bates on the back end. If the Commanders defense hasn't improved over the mini-bye we could see Atlanta toss up some points, roll Washington up and some questions start to be asked around D.C.
Eagles (-7) at Jets
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
This line has unfortunately moved past a pretty obvious key number, but I'm not sure it matters all that much. The Eagles second half against the Rams was incredibly impressive from a defensive standpoint. If Philly plays like that against the Jets on Sunday, Zach Wilson doesn't stand a chance. New York's defense is very good but it's also a unit being asked to stop a very effective run game with multiple backs and a passing attack that's starting to come around and features a trio of top-end weapons in A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goeddert. The short version is I think the Eagles overpower the Jets and win by more than a touchdown fairly easily. A second half with Wilson having to toss the ball around (New York won't be able to run here) won't result in a comeback.
49ers (-6.5) at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox,fubo)
The smart move is probably to make the Eagles and 49ers a teaser ... but that only makes me more nervous about taking both these teams as best bets. However, I put the Niners in over at SportsLine when they were under a touchdown based on the fact we shouldn't see Deshaun Watson playing this week. And why would we? According to what I heard, it sounds like Cleveland is letting Deshaun decide if he should play or not. Why would anyone with a fully guaranteed contract risk his long-term health to play with a significant injury? Watson didn't practice on Wednesday and I don't expect him to practice this week. Even if he does, passing conditions may be tough in Cleveland. The Niners can get up 14-0 and squeeze the Browns like a python in this game.
